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Despite a record solar capacity expansion of 60 gigawatts direct current (GWDC) in 2023, solar power generation in Europe increased modestly by around 20%. But this year will be a different story.
Rystad Energy predicts that solar photovoltaic (PV) energy will surge by approximately 50 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2024. For the first time, this will be more than any other generation source due to large-scale installations across the region, led by Germany. Wind power generation is also expected to increase in 2024. However, this growth rate falls short of the previous growth rate in 2023, when wind energy output increased by 50 TWh due to additional capacity installations and a particularly windy year in the last quarter.
In 2023, Germany moved from being a major electricity exporter to a net importer. Germany’s traditional coal electricity production was lower than in previous years due to the closure of nuclear power plants, reduced solar energy production and cheaper power available from other markets. As a result, Germany became increasingly dependent on imports from France and Denmark. This emphasized the importance of diversifying energy sources to ensure energy security and reduce dependence on imports.
Germany is now on track to continue the trend in 2023 and lead the European solar power market in 2024, adding more power generation capacity than any other country. Additionally, solar radiation is expected to improve significantly this year, returning to historical solar radiation levels. This became the norm after the previous year’s relatively poor performance.
In 2023, Germany achieved record growth of over 14 GWDC, driven mainly by the installation of rooftop solar PV systems. Approximately 6.5 million kW of rooftop solar power generation has been installed for residential use in Germany, supplying electricity to approximately 1.3 million households annually. A further 3.5 GWDC were installed in the commercial and industrial (C&I) sector, with more than 70% of the added capacity coming from rooftop installations, which played a key role in the growth of solar power in Germany and Europe.
Rystad Energy expects renewable energy to continue to grow significantly during 2024, with solar PV leading growth for the first time in both capacity and generation. Combined with the stabilization of output from nuclear power generation, the demand for fossil fuel electricity is expected to decrease further.
Since Europe’s electricity demand has increased only slightly, we can conclude that Europe is meeting its increased electricity demand entirely with renewable energy. This shows that the growth of renewable energy is enough to cover the increase in demand, which is why we observe a decline in the use of fossil fuels.
Vegard Wiik Vollset, Head of Renewable Energy and Power EMEA Research
The study includes 27 European Union member states, plus Norway, Serbia and Switzerland, but excludes the UK.
Learn more about Rystad Energy here. Renewable energy and power solutions.
Wind power generation is expected to increase by 38 TWh in 2024 as new generation capacity is added across Europe. However, the expected capacity addition is only about 25 GW, far less than Europe needs to reach its goals. Ambitious decarbonization goals.
EDF, Europe’s largest nuclear power producer, plans to increase output in 2024 after resolving stress corrosion problems in 2023. However, one of the three planned outages at 13 nuclear power plants will be extended, potentially affecting up to five nuclear power plants. Nevertheless, Europe’s nuclear sector is expected to generate 20TWh more in 2024 than in 2022. Nevertheless, nuclear power generation is still expected to be lower than pre-2022 levels, as nuclear power generation capacity is decreasing.
Fossil fuel electricity generation is expected to continue to decline in 2024, but at a much slower rate than in 2023. Due to a slight increase in electricity demand across Europe, the reduction is expected to be 60 TWh during the same period. The balance between coal and gas power plants is determined by the cost competitiveness of these two sources.
by Rystad Energy
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