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Donald Trump, more than any previous president, is accustomed to using public statements to undermine the foundations of NATO. As noted by Fabrice Potier and Alexander Verchebow, then-presidential candidate Trump’s comments in 2016 that the United States’ financial burden was unfair compared to its European allies were a sign that NATO’s nearly 70 years old is not fundamentally new in the history of For example, we can refer to the experience of the 1970s, when Henry Kissinger pressed the United States and its European partners to increase defense spending. But in 2016, President Trump went further, declaring that he was willing to conditionally honor U.S. commitments under Article 5 of NATO’s founding treaty, which obliges members to defend allies under attack. President Trump suggested it would depend on whether the ally in question “accomplished the mission.” [its financial] It’s a duty to us. ” In this, Trump meant that NATO’s defense spending target would be 2% of gross domestic product.
Only two NATO members, the United States and the United Kingdom, met the 2% target in 2016. Over the next four years after his inauguration in January 2017, President Trump had the opportunity to capitalize on threats using European nations’ unsatisfactory defense records as an excuse, but he never did. The United States remains in NATO to ensure security. In Europe.
Almost eight years have passed since then, and in February 2024, Donald Trump made similar remarks in a way that attracted even more attention. Speaking at a political rally in South Carolina, President Trump quoted the president of a “big country” who he did not name as asking: we? I said, “You didn’t pay?” Are you in arrears? ‘ He said, ‘Yes, let’s say that happened.’ No, I won’t protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever they want to do. Must be paid. ”
President Trump just reminded European NATO countries that they are obligated to increase defense spending to at least 2% of GDP. This is what NATO has been demanding since 2006, when NATO defense ministers agreed to make minimum commitments to ensure the alliance’s military readiness. This is something Trump has focused on since 2016. The latest warnings are packaged in his signature style, a combination of warnings, threats and ultimatums. However, in contrast to the 2016 version, the 2024 Trump statement is more significant, even alarming, in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
How would European countries have responded in 2024?
In 2024, NATO and European leaders appear to be taking President Trump’s statements seriously. Perhaps this is because President Trump has put a brighter spotlight on the issue, or perhaps because 2016 is different from 2024 in one major way. Russia is currently engaged in a full-scale war in Ukraine, and if the situation develops accordingly, the war could be prolonged. European countries are also involved in the conflict.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said: “Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines our overall security, including that of the United States, and puts American and European soldiers at risk.” I complied. EU Council President Charles Michel said: “Reckless statements about NATO security and Article 5 solidarity can only serve the interests of (Russian President Vladimir) Putin.”
In response to President Trump’s comments, the German Foreign Ministry posted the message “One for all, all for one” on the English version of the X account with the hashtag “StrongerTogether.” Poland’s Defense Minister Wladysław Kosiniak-Kamisz said, “NATO’s motto ‘One for all, all for one’ is a concrete promise. Undermining the trust of allies weakens NATO as a whole. It means to cause.”
President Roberta Mezzola of Estonia, another eastern NATO member, was more specific than her Polish partner. many. ” Metsola went on to say that the European Union should spend more on defense.
Thierry Breton, the EU Commissioner for the Internal Market, was one of the most decisive and proactive. “We’ve been hearing this for a while now…there’s nothing new under the sun…depending on this election, the election of the President of the United States, we can’t flip a coin on security every four years” election. ” Breton also sought to increase European defense spending.
Has European defense spending made progress? Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014?
As of 2024, 11 countries will have achieved NATO’s goals. In comparison, in 2014, her only three countries were the United States, the United Kingdom, and Greece. Clearly, this represents progress. However, 19 countries, including Canada, still fall short of NATO’s 2% target. Of these 19 countries, nine still have defense spending below 1.5% of GDP. Furthermore, since 2014, Croatia and Turkey have reduced their defense spending as a share of GDP.
All of this therefore gives reason to believe that NATO suffers from a lack of internal discipline and that administrative authority within NATO needs to be strengthened to foster compliance.
At the same time, since 2014, NATO has achieved good results in increasing spending on military equipment. Therefore, in 2014, only seven of her NATO member states had equipment expenditures as a share of defense spending exceeding 20%, but as of 2023 all NATO member states will have a share of this indicator. exceeded. Furthermore, nine NATO members spend more than 30 percent of their defense budget on equipment.
In other words, it cannot be said that since 2014, Europe has completely ignored Trump’s call for a first term as president. However, questions remain about overall defense spending.
President Trump’s threat to Europe to increase the risk of the United States failing to meet its obligations under Article 5 of the NATO Charter, enacted last week, to a minimum goal is already having an immediate impact on European leaders. . Germany’s response is certain, with Berlin already informing NATO that it will allocate record amounts to defense. Germany has announced a planned allocation of an amount equivalent to 2% of GDP for the first time in 30 years. The government notified NATO that it would transfer $73.4 billion for military needs. During the Cold War, Germany’s military spending allocation routinely exceeded 3% of GDP.
NATO also responded immediately. Just before the NATO Ministerial Meeting, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced a record increase in defense spending, stating that in 2024, NATO members in Europe will invest $380 billion in defense. will exceed 2% of total GDP for the first time,” the NATO Secretary-General said. In 2023, this figure was 1.85%. The Secretary-General also announced the number of NATO members who will spend more than 2% of their GDP on defense in 2024, saying: “18 of the 31 NATO allies expect to spend 2% of their GDP this year.” said. This is also a record. “This is a six-fold increase compared to 2014, when there were only three allies who met this requirement,” Stoltenberg added.
What is driving up defense spending? In Europe?
Effective deterrence requires not only a strong military element, but also well-known tools of geopolitics, including effective diplomacy. Perhaps this is where European leaders will feel real anxiety if the United States withdraws from Europe’s security architecture. Will NATO without the US be a sufficient geopolitical presence to effectively deter external threats? And, quite frankly and substantively, which of her NATO countries could fill the role of her NATO representative that the United States has played thus far?
Last year, Henry Kissinger made a very important statement in this regard. Kissinger said Europe’s political center of gravity was shifting inexorably toward Berlin, posing new challenges for the country’s leaders. He said: “Leading countries must be models of moderation and wisdom in balancing the interests of all countries. [European] countries,” Kissinger said.
This was likely discussed during Prime Minister Scholz’s visit to the White House after his meeting with President Biden in February.
At the same time, the most pressing issue remains America’s nuclear weapons in Europe, where the United States successfully provided nuclear deterrence against the Soviet Union and Russia for decades. Nuclear deterrence has gained increasing public support in Europe, particularly in Germany and the Netherlands, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Nuclear deterrence has been a fundamental element of the NATO concept since the 1950s and remains so today.
In general, European security issues in the context of US geopolitical interests and objectives in other regions. NATO’s role. Conventional military capabilities in Europe. US nuclear weapons in Europe. While the role of active diplomacy remains urgent, these are also issues that NATO partners, with the participation of the United States, must address in a consistent and effective manner. This is in the interests of NATO members as well as adversaries regarding the world order, and President Trump’s recent comments are a way of reminding European colleagues that this time they need to address the issue. It is an urgent matter. This is a question of the responsibilities and contributions of her NATO countries to global and regional security.
The views expressed in this article belong solely to the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Geopoliticalmonitor.com.
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