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Europe

Europe is nervous about the possibility of a Trump victory.China sees an opportunity

thedailyposting.comBy thedailyposting.comFebruary 19, 2024No Comments

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Editor’s note: Apply CNN Newsletter in China Explore what you need to know about the country’s rise and how it’s impacting the world.


Hong Kong
CNN
—

China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, told European diplomats over the weekend that no matter how the world changes, China will be “consistently stable” and a “force for stability.” He gave a message to the deaf.

The claim, made by Wang in remarks at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, comes as European leaders realize that former President Donald Trump’s possible return could upend their partnership with the United States. This comes amid concerns and careful attention to the upcoming US elections.

Those concerns were heightened last week when President Trump said he would not protect NATO allies who don’t spend enough on defense. The escalating Russian invasion of Ukraine poses an alarming threat to many in Europe.

Trump’s comments could not have come at a better time for Wang, who is currently on a trip to Europe as Beijing struggles to repair its deteriorating relationship with the European Union. Domestic economic struggles and ongoing friction with the United States make that effort more urgent.

“No matter how the world changes, China, as a responsible great power, will consistently maintain stability in its major principles and policies and become a firm force for stability in a turbulent world,” Wang said in a speech in Munich. He called out as follows: China and Europe will “move away from geopolitical and ideological distractions” and cooperate.

But while Mr. Wang’s proposal may be well-received in some European capitals, where leaders want to stabilize relations with China, the The government also has big problems, analysts say. .

These challenges were highlighted last weekend in Munich, where a security conference was overshadowed by shock and anger over reports of the death of imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, 47.

Leaders blamed his death on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s government, fueling anger as concerns grow over the fate of Ukraine, which lost vital ground to Russia on Friday.

Noah Barkin, a visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund (GMF), a US think tank, said: “Mr Wang’s message to his European hosts is that geopolitical differences will not get in the way of closer cooperation.” That means we shouldn’t allow it.”

“What is not being said is that China is not prepared to change the positions and policies that European countries are most concerned about: deepening ties with Russia and distorting trade practices.”

This Feb. 14 photo shows a residential building in ruins after a Russian missile attack in Ukraine's Kharkiv region.

Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping have strengthened ties since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two years ago, with both countries facing rising tensions with the West. China has not condemned Russia’s aggression and has insisted on impartiality in the dispute, but it has also emerged as a vital lifeline for Russia’s sanctions-hit economy.

In Europe, this has heightened concerns about China’s own global ambitions and contributed to the European Union’s continued push to recalibrate its China policy.

During a panel discussion in Munich on Saturday, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg drew parallels between Russia’s aggression and China, saying continued U.S. support for Ukraine could lead to the use of force in China’s autonomous territory of Taiwan. He said it would “send a message” to Mr Xi discouraging sex. Claimed by the ruling Communist Party.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell reiterated “the EU’s expectation that China refrain from supporting Russia” in a meeting with Foreign Minister Wang on Friday. Western governments have not accused Beijing of sending large-scale aid to the Russian military.

Bloomberg reported last week that the EU is considering imposing trade restrictions on three mainland Chinese companies as part of a series of proposed measures to stop Russia’s war effort.

In response to a question about CNN’s report, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it “firmly opposes illegal sanctions and ‘long-term jurisdiction'” against China under the pretext of Sino-Russian cooperation, and that it is open to “normal exchanges” between Chinese and Russian companies. said. “It is not intended for third parties.”

In an apparent attempt to address concerns about Sino-Russian relations, Wang over the weekend told an audience in Munich of Beijing’s efforts to work with “major powers” to address global challenges. This relationship was explained as part of this.

“Russia is China’s biggest neighbor,” Wang said, repeating his usual statement that the relationship between the two countries is not an alliance and “doesn’t target any third country.” Therefore, “steadily growing Sino-Russian relations… satisfy the common interests of both countries” and “contribute to the strategic stability of the Asia-Pacific and the world,” he said.

In response to a question from Christoph Heusgen, the chairman of the public forum, about whether China should do more to rein in Russia, Wang also said, “I don’t want to blame China or hold China responsible for resolving the Ukraine crisis.” He countered by claiming that it was an attempt to “pass the blame on to the government.” He said the Chinese government had been “relentless” in promoting peace talks.

The diplomat reiterated this in a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba on Saturday, saying that China does not “sell lethal weapons to conflict areas or parties to the conflict” and that China is working to re-establish peace. “We will not give up on our efforts,” he emphasized.

However, these efforts are limited by the way China uses its considerable economic influence and regular high-level communications with Russia, including between Mr. Xi and President Putin, to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity. This fell far short of Europe’s hopes of ending the conflict.

In fact, Beijing’s push to position itself as a potential peacemaker in the conflict, spearheaded by Wang at last year’s Munich Security Conference, has not produced any tangible results. The plan for a “political solution” to the conflict put forward by the Chinese government at the time was widely criticized as it called for a ceasefire without a prior withdrawal of Russian troops and was likely to serve to consolidate Russia’s territorial gains.

It is also unclear whether Beijing will attend the Ukraine-backed World Peace Summit in Switzerland. According to a statement on the Ukrainian diplomat’s X account, Kuleba raised the incident in a meeting with Wang. Beijing’s statement did not mention the incident.

Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomes Chinese leader Xi Jinping's state visit on March 21, 2023.

Against this backdrop, observers say Mr. Wang’s apparent attempts to allay European concerns about China’s position on the war may have little impact within the EU.

“As long as the war in Ukraine continues, the EU’s China policy will become more closely aligned with the US. Most likely, with a view to putting the Union’s economic security at the forefront “European countries will join the US in doubling down on export restrictions on critical technologies,” said Yu Jie, senior China researcher at Chatham House think tank in London.

The European Union is considering a number of measures to “de-risk” European supply chains from China, secure critical technology and protect its own markets from what it sees as artificially cheap Chinese products. are doing. The Chinese government views European policy as being unduly influenced by the United States.

Wang also sought to push back against the measures in Munich, warning that “those who try to exclude China in the name of ‘risk avoidance’ will commit a historic mistake.”

Chinese diplomats met with a number of European diplomats on the sidelines of the Security Council before heading to Spain. I’m planning to visit France again this week.

Observers say Mr. Wang could achieve further success by stabilizing relations with individual EU member states interested in strengthening economic ties and with countries facing uncertainty over the impending U.S. election. It is possible that they expect that they will be able to accommodate it.

Liu Dong-hsiu, an assistant professor at the City University of Hong Kong, said Wang could use the “Trump factor” at the European conference to point out that it is not in the best interests of European countries to completely side with the United States. There is.” Public Relations and International Department.

As president, Trump not only expressed skepticism about America’s alliance system in Europe, but also used tariffs on European steel and aluminum to provoke retaliatory action against American products from Europe.

“Wang Yi may point out that if Trump becomes president, it will be a problem if (Europe) can’t have good relations with China. He wants European countries to be more neutral. I want to convince them,” Liu said.

Beijing has made some progress in smoothing relations with European countries over the past year, including French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to China last spring, and Wang wants to build on this development. .

Barkin said, “If President Trump returns to the White House, he will be more interested in maintaining stable relations with China, in part to avoid the risk of trade tensions between China and the United States in the capital. They will come together,” he said. Mr. GMF is also a senior advisor to the New York-based Rhodium Group.

“[China’s]worst nightmare is a united transatlantic front on trade, technology and security issues…China is using President Trump’s words to send a message in European capitals that Washington is not a reliable partner. will be strengthened,” he said.

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