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With just hours left, Trump’s only emissary, Republican Sen. J.D. Vance, suggests the next U.S. administration may work with Russian President Vladimir Putin to withdraw from Europe. Was.
The audience seemed enthralled, but concerned.
With aid to Ukraine stalled and the US election looming, European leaders, officials and diplomats see a need to engage with former President Donald Trump and his allies on security issues. I am aware of this, but I am having a very difficult time doing so.
In recent months, many countries in Europe have witnessed President Biden’s weakness in the polls, at a time when President Trump has threatened an international order that has remained prosperous and cosy under the blanket of U.S. military security. I have been watching US politics closely with a sense of numb fear, wondering if we will return to the US.
As the biggest ground war in Europe since World War II rages on, President Trump’s flirtation with Russia and soft talks about NATO now feel more like an open invitation to invasion than a warning. Europe is concerned and furious, but unsure of what to do next.
In Munich, the specter of Trump and Trumpism overshadowed panels on the Ukraine war and European Union politics, dominating behind-the-scenes chatter like never before. Americans tried to allay fears. It seemed like it wasn’t selling very well. The mood further darkened following news that Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny had died in a Siberian prison. His wife Yulia also attended, as did many of her friends.
European officials in Munich said they were paying closer attention to the poll numbers, which are more detailed than ever before. The agency said it is scrutinizing data on likely outcomes in House and Senate races to predict trends in Congress, as well as the Biden-Trump pairing in battleground states.
Many of them said what they’re seeing in the presidential election doesn’t give them much hope. One person asked with concern whether Mr. Biden’s health would hold up until November. Another questioner asked about the possibility of a contested Democratic convention. What concerns me most is the fate of US aid to Ukraine.
Democrats hoping to support Ukraine called on their European colleagues to talk to Republicans. “I want to put a lot of pressure on all the House Republicans who are here to vote for support for Ukraine and make it very clear how important it is,” said Rep. Adam Smith of Washington. Ta. He is the No. 1 ranking Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee.
Some people are trying. Various European officials and diplomats have described what they see as a two-pronged approach to thwarting President Trump. It is trying to sell the existing world order to MAGA America while simultaneously preparing for its possible collapse.
Privately, senior EU diplomats say their embassies are working overtime to understand what’s happening in the U.S. and what comments and concessions will resonate with the Republican base. he said.
During a recent visit to the United States, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg spoke at the Trump-friendly Heritage Foundation, visited a Lockheed Martin facility in Troy, Alabama, and said that the Allies would not be able to take advantage of the U.S. weapons manufacturer’s Just emphasize what products you are purchasing.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsakna recently traveled to Arkansas to promote the country’s U.S. arms purchases. He saw the trip as a way to explain what Europe is doing to protect itself and to advocate for continued U.S. involvement in NATO. His goal is to “put the facts on the table.”
“We have to be practical,” he said.
In private conversations, European officials and diplomats often raise the idea of promising the United States tougher action against China in return for supporting Ukraine and NATO, but there are no specifics. Almost no steps are mentioned.
It will likely take more effort to convince Mr. Vance and his colleagues.
“Europe’s problem is that Europe itself cannot provide sufficient deterrence,” he said in Munich on Sunday morning. “I think the American security blanket has allowed European security to wither away.”
He said the United States does not need to leave NATO or abandon Europe, but it does need to “pivot” to Asia. And as it does so, he argued, Europe needs to strengthen.
While some in Europe’s security establishment may agree with this opinion, few share his assessment of Russia.
“I don’t think President Vladimir Putin is an existential threat to Europe,” Vance said on Sunday. “And as long as he is, it shows that Europe must play a more active role in its own security,” he continued.
The senator told an audience in Munich that he was open to working with President Putin. “The fact that he’s a bad guy doesn’t mean we can’t engage in basic diplomacy and prioritize American interests,” he said.
Those words will do little to reassure Europeans worried that Trump’s second term in office could spell the end of NATO. At a campaign rally this month, President Trump said he would “encourage” Russia to “do whatever it wants” to NATO members that don’t spend enough on defense.
“If a former and perhaps future leader of the free world says he will wait and see how Russia attacks a NATO ally, we have no idea what U.S. engagement in Europe and Ukraine will look like. We need to reconsider,” one European security official said. Discuss sensitive conversations between allies on condition of anonymity.
“We have to hope for the best, but we have to prepare for the worst,” the official said, adding that such a scenario would involve cutting off aid to Ukraine and allowing Putin to destabilize the region. He added that this also includes.
In the days since President Trump’s remarks, European officials have privately discussed creating a continent-wide complement to NATO that would work in tandem with U.S. security, but It may also serve as a reliable alternative if the warranty is revoked.
For now, these conversations are tied to a well-known controversy. France and Germany have not been able to agree on who will pay for it. Eastern Europe does not fully trust Western Europe’s resolve against the Russian threat. And it is unclear how to build a nuclear shield over the continent, and even if it did, it would be nowhere near Russia’s arsenal in the worst-case scenario of nuclear war.
Some wonder if Europe gearing up to secede from the United States could fuel a self-fulfilling prophecy, intensifying rather than averting transatlantic divorce.
Some are focused on how to secure U.S. commitments ahead of the November election. Senior U.S. policymakers say that, realistically, there is only so much that can be done to constrain future administrations’ foreign policy decisions. But some of the structures they are discussing (such as the promise of long-term military aid to Ukraine) could make it politically more difficult for President Trump to completely renege on U.S. commitments. Status reports and other actions may be required.
And there’s a sense that things will change even if Biden wins.
German MEP Hanna Neumann said there was no doubt that the crowd in Munich supported Biden, but the change in sentiment in the United States was more profound than for Trump, and that support would probably continue. He said most people understood what was going on.
“It’s clear to everyone: whether it’s Trump or Biden, EU countries must come together and strengthen their security efforts,” she said. “That’s your homework.”
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