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A year ago, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi made a stop in Munich on what he called a “European charm offensive” and was scheduled to end with a visit to Moscow.
At the annual security conference in the Bavarian city, Mr. Wang launched a thinly veiled condemnation of the United States’ stance on the Ukraine war.
China’s foreign minister said, “Some forces may not want peace negotiations to take place,” adding, “They don’t care about the lives or deaths of Ukrainians or the damage to Europe…They have bigger strategic goals than Ukraine.” “Maybe,” he added. itself”.
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On Friday, when Mr. Wang arrives in Munich to speak at the same forum, observers expect Mr. Washington to once again be the elephant in the room.
Mr. Wang is widely expected to meet with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of the meeting.
In a Saturday noon speech and bilateral talks with Western officials, Mr. Wang touted China as a responsible global player, as much of Europe rebels against former US President Donald Trump’s possible return to the White House. It is expected to be sold.
Immediately after the speech, a panel including US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, and German Foreign Minister Annalena Verbock will take the stage.
However, it has not been confirmed whether Mr. Wang will meet with his counterpart.
President Trump has indicated multiple times this week that the United States would not defend NATO allies if they were attacked by Russia, contrary to the provisions of the Transatlantic Security Group’s Charter.
The former US president’s claims have dominated political discussion in Europe this week and are likely to influence diplomatic proceedings in Munich this weekend.
A memo from German think tank Mercator Institute for China Research (Melix) said, “A key issue in all future meetings will be whether Mr. Wang, in response to Europe’s alarm over President Trump, It is not a question of whether or not to actively promote these claims, but to what extent.” .
China’s Foreign Ministry said Wang’s speech on Saturday would focus on “China’s proposals for building a community with a shared future for mankind and advocating for an equal and orderly multipolar world.”
However, Wang is scheduled to meet with a range of foreign ministers, including British Prime Minister David Cameron and the EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell, before heading to France and Spain to meet with their local counterparts.
Analysts believe the Chinese envoy will try to capitalize on China’s interests amid panic in Europe over a possible second term for Trump.
Former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Conway, South Carolina on February 10th. There are growing concerns among some European leaders about his possible return to the White House. Photo: AFP/Getty Images/TNS alt=Former US President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Conway, South Carolina, on February 10. There are growing concerns among some European leaders about his possible return to the White House. Photo: AFP/Getty Images/TNS>
“The Munich Security Conference is a venue for China not only to hold bilateral talks with European and US leaders, but also to deliver a coordinated message about its global ambitions,” said Abigael Vasselier of Merix. said.
“This year’s conference will definitely be a highlight to learn about China’s current views on European security and the future of the transatlantic partnership.”
Regardless of President Trump, Mr. Wang will land in Europe, which is becoming increasingly weary of war, as the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine approaches.
In contrast to a year ago, cracks have appeared in the EU’s unity on the conflict, largely due to the position of Hungary, China’s closest friend in Europe.
In Brussels on Wednesday, Budapest was once again the only country among the 27 member states to oppose a new sanctions package aimed at hampering Russia’s war machine.
Hungary has put three mainland Chinese companies and a Hong Kong company on the EU’s blacklist for helping Russian companies evade EU sanctions and gain access to European-made dual-use products, according to reports. I was particularly against doing so.
Last year, there were still hopes in Europe that Beijing would help broker a ceasefire in Ukraine. But recently, the EU’s expectations have become more cautious.
Compared to last year, there is little chatter about talks between Ukrainian and Chinese officials. The Munich Security Index, a survey released ahead of the summit, found that a majority of Ukrainians view China as a “threat” rather than an “ally.”
“While no one expects China to actively intervene, with the rise of President Trump we increasingly see leaders managing their personal relationships with China to ensure they don’t start actively supporting Russia. It will be a lot more,” said a senior EU diplomat who made the comment conditionally. of anonymity.
Meanwhile, the region is deeply divided when it comes to the other dominant geopolitical issue of the time, the Middle East.
Ireland and Spain this week called on the EU to review its trade agreement with Israel, saying Israel’s airstrikes on Gaza do not meet the human rights principles of the agreement.
Tensions within the bloc are rising as other member states support Israel’s right to defend itself.
And since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack sparked the current crisis, Beijing has steadfastly supported the Palestinians and repeatedly called for an immediate ceasefire.
Relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages held in Gaza since an Oct. 7 attack by the Palestinian militant group Hamas lit smoke bombs and blocked roads Thursday during a demonstration demanding their release in Tel Aviv. Photo: AFP alt=Relatives and supporters of Israeli hostages held in Gaza since an Oct. 7 attack by Palestinian militants Hamas lit smoke bombs on Thursday during a demonstration demanding their release in Tel Aviv. was blocked. Photo: AFP>
Palestine occupies a similar position to much of the Global South in UN votes related to the conflict, and is expected to go along with its views in Munich.
Insiders say the Middle East will also be at the heart of the EU talks in Munich, but they expect there to be little room for Beijing to gain on these geopolitical issues.
“It may seem like there are a lot of divisions in Europe on foreign affairs, but they are not so big that China can exploit them,” said Miguel Otero of the Madrid-based think tank Elcano Royal Institute. Ta.
Rather, Wang is seeking stronger ties with major powers still keen to engage with China, even as broader EU-China relations falter amid trade issues and close ties between Beijing and Russia. It is believed that efforts will be made to
As the EU debates whether to take action over cheap Chinese-made solar panels, the China Globalization Center, a Beijing-based think tank, organized a side event in Munich to call the EU, US and China the “tripartite party on climate change”. We urge them to accept “international cooperation.”
“China’s hope is that EU policy can be kept on a friendly trajectory by reaching out to key member states such as Germany, France, Italy and Spain,” said Pascal Abbe of the Frankfurt Peace Research Institute. .
“They enjoy recent Chinese initiatives such as visa-free business travel, and are natural supporters of the ‘strategic autonomy’ that China has promoted with the aim of preventing collaboration between the US and the EU.”
In Spain, for example, there is debate over whether and how to attract Chinese investment into the electric vehicle sector.
“At a time when attitudes towards China are changing within the EU, especially in the east and north, China sees Spain as a rational actor in Europe,” Otero said. “In Spain, China is still seen as a partner with whom we have to cooperate.”
Meanwhile, observers see France playing a two-sided game. Even as it teeters on the brink of trade tensions with China, it remains open to Chinese investment in high-tech industries such as electric cars and batteries.
It was Paris that called on the European Commission to investigate subsidies in China’s electric vehicle sector, spurring a retaliatory investigation into subsidies in the brandy sector.
The incident comes as Paris prepares for a state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping later this year, according to various sources, as the government celebrates 60 years of bilateral ties.
“It’s very easy to make an enemy of China, but it’s mostly counterproductive,” said Marc Julienne of the French Institute of International Relations in Paris.
“It is understandable that France wants to maintain good relations with China, the world’s second-largest economy,” he said. “But it is also legitimate to try to protect French and European interests.”
This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative news organization on China and Asia for more than a century. For more stories from SCMP, explore the SCMP app or visit SCMP on Facebook. twitter page. Copyright © 2024 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
Copyright (c) 2024. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.
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