Can Europe sustain the fight against Ukraine?

The European Union has a decisive lead over the United States when it comes to aiding Ukraine. On February 1, Brussels passed a massive 50 billion euro (about $53.7 billion) aid package for Ukraine over four years. At the same time, a proposed $60 billion aid package for Kyiv remains blocked in Congress due to opposition from House Republicans. Without a political agreement on Capitol Hill, Europe may be left to support Ukraine on its own for some time to come.

This begs the question: Can Europe hold the line and help Ukraine resist the Russian onslaught?

Few in Moscow and Washington believe Europe can do it without American help. Russian leaders and Western realists deny European defense capabilities and see the war as a conflict between the great powers of the United States and Russia. But European countries showed remarkable resilience last winter in withstanding Russia’s energy threat. Building on this success, Europe could help Ukraine resist with courage and determination while Washington remains paralyzed.

Europe accelerates, US stalls

While America’s notable involvement in Ukraine has steadily declined over the past two years, European involvement has increased. An increasing number of Americans say the United States is providing “too much” aid to Ukraine. Currently, House Speaker Mike Johnson and a significant portion of the Republican caucus oppose legislation aimed at providing more aid to Ukraine. But both the United States and Russia have been slow to recognize that Europe is moving in a different direction. Since February 2022, EU support for Ukraine has increased dramatically.

Countries like Germany, which initially refused to send military aid to Ukraine or even allow such aid to pass through its airspace, now rank as Ukraine’s largest supplier of military equipment. It has been. Opinion polls show that Europeans continue to strongly support Ukraine. Moreover, EU countries politely refused to consider Ukraine as an EU member state before the Russian invasion in February 2022, but in June 2022 they granted it candidate status. Accession negotiations began in December 2023. France and Germany even supported Ukraine’s membership in NATO. Vilnius summer 2023. Meanwhile, the EU’s financial support to Ukraine accelerated. Despite obstruction from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the European Union has pledged a new 50 billion euros, making it the biggest source of pledged funds to Ukraine, surpassing the United States.

What explains this disconnect between increasing levels of commitment in Europe and decreasing commitment in the United States? The answer is simple. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shattered European security consciousness in a way different from that of the United States. European countries view attempts to destroy Ukraine as an existential threat. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has warned that Russia could invade NATO members within five to eight years, plunging all of Europe into war. An ocean away from the battlefields of Europe, Russia’s challenge to U.S. security remains an abstraction for many voters.

Achievements of European unification against Russia

While many in Moscow and Washington ignore evidence of Europe’s growing resolve, European countries showed remarkable unity in the fight against Russia’s energy threat last winter. In 2021, Russia cut gas supplies to Europe. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, it became clear that Russia planned to squeeze supplies to pressure Europe to abandon Ukraine. Russian leaders believe that if gas supplies become scarce and European countries are forced to choose between soaring energy prices and aiding Ukraine, Brussels will file a case for peace with Ukraine, as it did with Georgia in 2014 and 2008. I thought he would let me do it. Europe sought to shape public opinion by organizing mass protests against soaring energy prices, replicating the yellow vest protests in France. But that didn’t work either.

Instead, European countries quickly came together within the framework of the European Union and developed a comprehensive plan to combat Russia’s energy threat. EU leaders agreed on emergency energy-saving measures, including lowering the temperature of public buildings and turning off the Eiffel Tower’s lights after midnight. These measures allowed him to exceed his 15% energy reduction target. The European Union has extended it again this year.

In addition, European countries are rapidly diversifying their energy supplies, quickly building liquefied natural gas terminals and completing pipeline projects, reducing dependence on Russian oil and gas to more than a third of previous levels. did. European countries also imposed price caps on Russian oil, forcing Russia to look for customers elsewhere. Revenues at Russia’s leading oil and gas companies fell by 41% in the first nine months of 2023. While some of Europe’s energy-intensive industries suffered, Europe kept the heat and lights on throughout the winter. Europe plans to do something similar this winter, with the help of a large gas storage facility in Ukraine.

Europe’s victory in the energy war with Russia has strengthened Europe’s confidence that it can stand up to and win against Russia. But does the same apply in the military field? Does Europe have the ability to stop Russia in Ukraine without major US help? It will be much more difficult, but it is possible.

As Europe proved last winter, its peoples may be willing to make the sacrifices necessary to defeat Russia. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen frequently reminds Europeans that Ukraine is “fighting for us.” However, currently Europe’s involvement in the war remains relatively low compared to Russia. Analysts estimate that Russia spent at least 6.4% of its gross domestic product on defense in 2023, compared to an average of 2.1% for NATO countries. To replace U.S. military aid, European countries would have to spend a higher percentage of their budgets on the military in exchange for other priorities. Europe continues to step up arms deliveries to Ukraine, the creation of new EU-wide facilities, the training of Ukrainian soldiers, and support for expanding European arms production, but European countries are unable to sign large arms contracts. be reluctant to do so. Europe will need to significantly increase its commitment to winning without the United States.

However, it is not impossible to do so. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has already called for talks at the EU summit in February, saying, “The amount of weapons that the majority of EU member states are planning to send to Ukraine so far is far too small.” …We need higher contributions.” European leaders rose to the challenge of energy blackmail last winter and may do so again. Following French President Emmanuel Macron’s call for “strategic autonomy” during his visit to China in April 2023, some European countries have seized the opportunity to strengthen Europe’s role as a strategic actor without the United States. There is a possibility of capturing. On January 30, 2024, President Macron stressed that Europe “must be ready to act to protect and support Ukraine, whatever it takes and whatever decisions the United States takes.” did.

Looking to the future

The uncertainty over U.S. aid to Ukraine comes as Russian and Ukrainian forces are exhausted after two years of intense fighting. Neither side is likely to succeed in large-scale offensive operations. Some Western analysts recommend that Ukraine temporarily adopt a more defensive posture, while learning from the 2023 attack and preparing new offensive capabilities. Holding the line under these circumstances may be more feasible for Europe, which has been slow to strengthen its defense industry to meet this challenge.

But don’t exclude Europe. Even if parliament remains paralyzed, the determination and unity of Europe, including European Union member states and the UK, will stop Russia from fighting a war that President Vladimir Putin is desperate to win quickly, as he has been since February 2022. may prolong the period.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a nonpartisan organization that seeks to publish well-argued, policy-oriented articles about U.S. foreign policy and national security. It does not necessarily reflect the position. Priority.

Image: President of Ukraine