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CNN
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The special election to replace former Rep. George Santos in New York’s 3rd Congressional District, a new battleground that could be a usher for other suburbs this fall, will take place in two months. After intensifying election activities over the past few years, it appears that the race is heading toward a close conclusion. With millions of dollars in outside spending.
The district, which includes Long Island’s Nassau County and northeastern Queens, is largely well-educated and wealthy, and is the kind of district Democrats currently hope to win, but its ideological diversity makes it There has been a recent trend toward more Republican and deeply rooted counties. The Republican machine has become a true Election Day wild card.
Tuesday’s results could hold lessons for both parties as general election season approaches, with both the presidential race and the race for control of the House expected to hinge largely on the views of suburban voters. .
In the short term, the victory for Democrat Tom Suozzi, who ran Nassau County for much of the 2000s and previously represented the district in Congress, will help him win the district by 8 points in 2020. It will be a boost for President Joe Biden and the House minority. Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who lives in Brooklyn, will likely need the seat to become chairman next year. The victory of Republican Maji Pilip, a little-known county councilman from Great Neck, signals the possibility of further Republican gains nationally, with a new Republican congressman from New York planning to defend his seat in November. It will give us some peace of mind. .
Suozzi’s election as Nassau County Executive in 2001 broke a 30-year Republican lock on the job. Suozzi was elected to the House of Representatives in 2016 after he lost a bid for a third term in 2009 and then lost in the Democratic primary for a statewide office. He was re-elected twice more and left his seat for another unsuccessful gubernatorial campaign. But his brand remains strong on Long Island, so the party hand-picked him as its candidate after a special election was called.
Pillip is little known in the district, but the powerful County Party (which also controls most of Nassau’s local offices) is promoting her campaign, which, if successful, could lead to a return to the Republican Party. This is perhaps the clearest evidence that he is Long Island’s political kingpin. She also becomes the first black Republican to represent New York state in Congress.
Here are some things to keep in mind:
The three I’s and abortion
Immigration, inflation, Israel and the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade shaped Long Island’s political landscape during Mr. Santos’ final term last year. Months later, there remain major issues facing candidates, along with housing costs.
But immigration has become the most talked about issue in the election campaign, if not the most important. Mr. Pillip has repeatedly criticized Mr. Suozzi over past conflicts with Immigration and Customs Enforcement and sought to channel his anger over the ongoing immigration crisis in neighboring New York City.
In the only debate last week, Pilip said Suozzi “voted for open borders” while in Congress and, along with Biden, “created the immigration crisis.” While it may seem a bit far-fetched given Mr. Suozzi’s position, dissatisfaction with border policies is a powerful political tool, especially on Long Island, where voters primarily get their news from city news outlets. and see the city’s problems as precursors to their own problems.
Inflation is still an important topic, but not as much as it was maybe a year or so ago when prices were skyrocketing. Israel is the focus of, if not the debate. Mr. Suozzi is an ardent supporter, as is Mr. Pilip, who served in the Israel Defense Forces before immigrating to the United States.
But it’s possible that abortion will re-emerge as an X factor. Suozzi supports abortion rights and wants to codify Roe v. Wade. Pilip is even more difficult to identify. Although she calls herself “pro-life,” she says “when it comes to abortion, every woman should have the choice to make that decision,” and she would not vote for a federal ban. she says.
During the debate, Suozzi repeatedly pressed her to take a clearer position. However, after long exchanges, the issue was not resolved.
The Suozzi Brand and the Republican Machine
Suozzi has deep roots in this neighborhood. He is a moderate, campaigning, governing, and legislating as one. If there had been a primary for the nomination, he probably would have attracted a more liberal challenger. So attacks by Mr. Pillip and his Republican allies suggesting he was a “squad” candidate didn’t sit well with many voters here.
However, there is another brand to consider. It’s the Democratic Party. The party has lost elections at nearly every level on Long Island since 2021, and Republicans are following a similar strategy this year, with Suozzi slumped over New York City’s immigration crisis and growing concerns about the cost of living and housing. (and Mr. Biden). .
Neither candidate advertises their party affiliation on the county’s thousands of lawn signs and has avoided national party leaders, at least in public. But a strange question heading into Election Day is whether Mr. Suozzi’s generally positive reputation was enough to overcome powerful Republican establishments trying to get his supporters to go to the polls, perhaps literally in some cases. The question is whether it is or not.
Early voting numbers show high voter turnout among registered Democrats, but operatives in both parties are less invested in that information. Democrats tend to vote early. Republicans typically prefer to vote on Election Day.
The current situation is that for the first time in years, New York is bracing for a major snowstorm that is expected to hit the region in the early morning hours. Long Island is relatively densely populated, at least compared to places like Iowa, and a few centimeters shouldn’t decide either candidate. But heavier-than-expected snow and sleet could be detrimental to Republicans.
That is, unless Republicans weaponize the situation, shutting down some public services due to the weather and freeing up more volunteers for door-knocking and other voting efforts. The Nassau County Legislature’s top Democrats are so concerned that they sent a letter to County Executive Bruce Blakeman and three town supervisors, all Republicans, demanding that their decisions not be clouded by the campaign. did.
“This is an affront to the democratic process,” Minority Leader Delia Delighi-Whitton wrote. “Taxpayers who are county employees will similarly be directed to prioritize “volunteer work” for candidates they support in Tuesday’s special election before carrying out important local government work. . Keeping our roads passable and maintaining our safety and quality of life. ”
The shunned charlatan has been largely out of sight and unconscious since being expelled from parliament last year on various personal lies, fraud and criminal charges. And despite all the fuss over his brief tenure as nominal “representative” of the district, Santos’ specter is not expected to play much of a role in the outcome.
Part of the reason is that Mr. Suozzi has largely ignored sensible figures who don’t think he can influence the swing voters he needs to win back his old seat. Democratic operatives also believe that Mr. Santos’ pushback has long been part of the campaign. Previously unengaged Democratic voters, angered by Mr. Santos’ deception, are now voting, and in many cases are volunteering for Mr. Suozzi.
Pilip clearly doesn’t spend much time talking about Santos, but the Republican Party is worried, if for no other reason than that conservatives will stick with Democrats as the county becomes increasingly Trump-stained. I’m excited about the idea that it might come out. That comment led to duly elected Republicans being forced from office.
Note: Nearly every local Republican leader and office holder called for Mr. Santos’ resignation, and the vote to expel him from Congress was an unusually bipartisan success.
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