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Fabrizio Tassinari and Teona Djuashvili Whether the US continues to support Kiev or not, European countries need to scale up efforts to provide Ukraine with all the support it needs to stand up to Russia It is written.
Mr. Fabrizio Tassinari is the Secretary General and Ms. Teona Juashvili is a visiting researcher at the European University Institute (EUI) Florence School of Transnational Governance.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was right. February 1st was truly a “good day for Europe.”
After suffering prolonged sabotage of the agreement by Viktor Orban, a special European Council meeting reaches an agreement on 50 billion euros in financial aid to Ukraine from 2024 to 2027 to support the country and its war effort against Russia. would be helpful. and maintain Ukraine’s path to the EU.
This agreement is decisive not only for Ukraine, but also for the EU, its security and credibility as a partner.
Every time the EU overcomes obstacles and achieves its priorities, Jean Monnet’s famous mantra that the EU can prevail in the face of crisis gains momentum. Despite all the adversity of the past few years, the crisis has forced the EU to achieve significant results while remaining united.
But the leadership needs to move beyond responding to the rapidly escalating crisis to a long-term strategy to protect Europe and meet global challenges. The question is whether the EU can raise its strategic approach beyond next year’s daunting election calendar.
With EU elections in June and US presidential elections in November, the Trump administration’s withdrawal of aid from Ukraine will not only undermine the transatlantic alliance, but also make Europeans more insular and rule There is a clear risk that investment in support will decline. -based worldwide order.
Are we in the middle of a new political cycle?
Over the past five years, the EU has gone through four crisis management cycles. A geopolitical awakening, the shock of war, a degree of complacency and growing anxiety.
As European countries realized that their strategic environments were becoming increasingly competitive and unstable, they began to awaken to the resurgence of geopolitics. Europe’s new awareness of the need to learn to “speak the language of power” amounts to recognizing that Europe’s ability to attract needs to be complemented by coercive measures.
A stronger Europe will seek to shape events rather than being shaped by external forces.
The recurrence of major wars in Europe has given the EU’s commitments an added urgency and significance.
The shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced the EU to break deep-rooted taboos and impose an unprecedented 12 sanctions package against Russia. Provide significant military support to Ukraine and unlock the accession process. The EU quickly presented these achievements as the rise of geopolitical Europe.
But by early 2023, the mobilization of EU aid, upbeat announcements about new defense investments across Europe, and Ukraine’s success in pushing back Russian forces had generated a degree of complacency.
Herbivorous Europe has finally become a more muscular entity, able to hold its ground against Russia and prepare for competition in other areas, such as trade and industrial policy.
However, Europe’s complacency with its newly acquired geopolitical reflexes did not last long.
In the face of crises on multiple fronts, from a series of coups in the Sahel region to the Israeli-Hamas war after Hamas’ terrorist attacks in Israel, the EU displayed a familiar combination of indecision and disagreement throughout 2023, leading the EU to relegated to a marginal role in society. Coping with conflict and the growing instability at hand.
Cracks have begun to appear in geopolitical confidence on the European continent as well.
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and the outbreak of violence in northern Kosovo in September 2023 have exposed the instability of the EU’s efforts to prevent or resolve internal crises.
As Ukraine’s long war of attrition subsides, there are signs of war fatigue across Europe and a growing awareness that European support for Ukraine is beginning to waver. In short, within a few months, complacency gave way to anxiety, as if Europe was preparing to limit the damage on all fronts.
In this context, the decision of EU leaders in December 2023 to start accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova (and grant candidate status to Georgia), despite all the surrounding political controversy , and the subsequent agreement in February on large-scale financial aid to Ukraine, dispelled some of the growing fears.
In this new phase, it is vital that Europe builds on these steps and moves towards a truly strategic approach to ensuring stability for Europe and its projects in the international arena.
However, little can be achieved or sustained at the strategic level if populist forces and nationalist instincts fragment the domestic political front. It is essential for Europeans to start a serious discussion about what should and can be done to keep Europe safe and protected. Russia seems to be in for a long war. Will the West be resilient enough to keep going?
As elections approach in Europe, we need to present a strong strategic case to voters.
At stake in Ukraine is Europe’s security, and protecting Europe is a first step toward empowering the EU to pursue a broader international agenda.
The EU cannot become a credible global player unless it confronts Russia’s aggressive imperialism on its own continent. At the same time, it must not be the sole focus of forward-looking European foreign policy.
This conclusion suggests three main courses of action. European countries need to scale up efforts in the short and medium term to provide Ukraine with all the support it needs to counter Russia, regardless of whether the United States continues to support Kiev after the November presidential election. There is.
This will require strengthening European defense industrial capabilities and cooperation to deliver the necessary military equipment to Ukraine, while strengthening the capabilities of EU and NATO member states.
Beyond immediate support, strong leadership will be needed to move the enlargement process forward and prepare both the EU and candidate countries for eventual membership.
Extending the sphere of democracy, rights, security and prosperity across Europe will give the EU the political strength to pursue cooperation and stability on the world stage as well.
But with that in mind, a stronger EU needs to demonstrate political agility for long-term priorities and pursue engagement with all partners willing to work together on common global challenges. There is.
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