Europe’s rocky path to becoming Ukraine’s arsenal

However, with the US government unable to agree on a new support framework and Donald Trump likely to be re-elected to the White House in November, it may be up to Europe to bridge the gap. There is.

EU aid spending will total 28 billion euros ($30 billion) over two years, with another 20 billion euros planned for this year, said top EU diplomat Josep Borrell.

Nevertheless, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged allies to “do more.”

Individual member states have increased defense spending, with French President Emmanuel Macron even referring to a “war economy.”

But last year, only nine of NATO’s 27 members spent more than 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) on defense, NATO’s nominal minimum.

Germany, France and Italy, the EU’s richest countries with world-class defense industries, were not among them.

“European countries haven’t significantly increased their budgets since the invasion of Ukraine, and they haven’t placed as many orders with manufacturers,” said Renaud Berret, an economist who specializes in the defense industry.

Production lines are rolling out equipment such as anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles, artillery shells and artillery, whether heading to Ukraine or rebuilding depleted national stockpiles.

The EU has fallen short of its original goal of increasing production of the vital 155mm artillery shell, but expects to produce 1.4 million rounds in 2025, 200,000 more than the US plans.

“Europe’s production capacity is not negligible, but it is highly fragmented, with, for example, 15 shell manufacturers spread across 11 countries and completely uncoordinated,” Verais said.

Meeting Ukraine’s demands “will take time because the institutions are not yet in place to make it happen,” while building actual military equipment could take “months, even years.” He added that there is.

“Europe’s defense and technology industrial base is currently unable to meet wartime demands,” Christian Mehring, an analyst at the German think tank DGAP, wrote in a recent note.

He added that during the post-Cold War “peace dividend” era, defense spending was slashed and European industry “lost the ability to expand production.”

Rather than rebuilding domestic manufacturing, some European countries are increasingly relying on “off-the-shelf procurement” from the United States, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, where the United States is already seen as an indispensable security provider. Moering said.

Of the 100 billion euros in arms spending by EU countries from 2022 to mid-2023, 63% went to purchases of American products and 13% to South Korea.

European defense companies, on the other hand, are reluctant to invest in increasing production capacity unless they have contracts that guarantee long-term sales, which the city of Brussels is calming by organizing collective orders across several states. I am concerned that they are struggling.

Aleksandra Koziol from the Polish think tank PISM said: “The open question remains whether increased defense spending in the EU will strengthen EU industry…or, on the contrary, make it more dependent on allies such as Washington.” “,” he said in a research note. .

Not all EU countries support the promotion of “strategic autonomy” by major member states such as France, which lacks direct economic self-interest.

Central and Eastern European industry is “not in a position to make a significant contribution to the European project,” Moring wrote.

Economist Berais said that where states have national champions, they will not hesitate to promote them, leaving Europe in a “framework of national egoism” and “the tension between national defense language and budget constraints.” ” was pointed out.

“People are scared, but not enough to change their ways,” he added.

Nevertheless, “unless European nations fully integrate their defense efforts and operate as a single organization, they will never be able to match the breadth and depth of U.S. capabilities,” according to U.S. think tank CSIS. Mark Cancian said.

Nevertheless, some in Kiev believe that Europeans will one day be able to shoulder the burden of the Americans.

“The process has already started,” a Ukrainian diplomat told AFP.

“It will take time, but we have no choice but to be patient.”

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