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A study published in Science Advances suggests that the cessation of the Atlantic Current this century could cause average temperatures in large areas of Europe to become even colder, causing Arctic ice to spread further south.
Large parts of Europe, including the UK, could be plunged into polar ice if ocean currents suddenly stop due to climate change, according to a complex new computer simulation.
The study, published in Science Advances, suggests that this “cliff-like” tipping point in the Atlantic Ocean may be closer than previously thought. Once this point is reached, average temperatures could become even colder across large parts of Europe, and Arctic ice could spread further south.
The nightmare scenario caused by the melting of Greenland’s ice sheet due to global warming is still decades away, but perhaps not as far away as once believed. The study uses key measurements to track the strength of critical ocean-wide circulation, which is slowing.
If this current, known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), breaks down, it will lead to dramatic changes in weather around the world. Temperatures in northwestern Europe could fall by 5 to 15 degrees Celsius in a few decades, Arctic ice could spread further south and global rainfall patterns could shift, dumping heavy rain on the Amazon River. .
Other scientists have warned that such a catastrophe could lead to global food and water shortages.
“We’re getting closer[to collapse]but we don’t know how close,” said study lead author René van Westen, a climate scientist and oceanographer at Utrecht University in the Netherlands. “We are heading towards a tipping point.”
In recent months, increasingly alarming reports about the state of Earth’s weather systems have included Friday’s news that global warming has exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius for the first time in a year. At the same time, Britain’s Labor Party watered down its green investment pledge and Rishi Sunak undermined many previous policies aimed at reducing the country’s emissions.
A ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars in 2030 will be delayed by five years, the phase-out of gas boiler sales will be eased in 2035, and landlords will be required to insulate rental properties to higher standards. disappears.
Although the predicted global weather disaster is fictionalized in the disaster movie “The Day After Tomorrow,” van Westen said scientists can’t say for sure when it will occur, but it will likely occur within a lifetime. He said it would happen soon. He’s only just turned 30. “The rate of climate change that we, as a species, are causing,” Van Westen added.
Research shows AMOC is slowing down, but the fear is a complete collapse or closure. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has moderate confidence that a collapse will not occur by 2100, and disaster scenarios are generally downplayed. But van Westen, several outside scientists, and research from last year suggest that may not be true.
Stefan Rahmstorff, head of the Earth System Analysis Division at Germany’s Potsdam Climate Institute, who was not involved in the study, called it “a major advance in AMOC stability science.”
Rahmstorff warned that “the new study significantly adds to the growing concern that AMOC could fail in the not-too-distant future.” “Ignore this at your peril.”
Tim Renton, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter who was not involved in the study, also expressed growing concerns about the possibility of collapse. He warned that such a collapse could cause dramatic changes in the world’s climate, “so sudden and severe that it will be almost impossible for some regions to adapt.” .
Wei Chen, an oceanographer with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration who was not involved in the study, said there are signs that the AMOC has collapsed in the past. However, predicting when and how things will change in the future remains uncertain.
According to NASA, the AMOC is a critical part of the global ocean current conveyor belt that helps regulate Earth’s temperature, absorb carbon dioxide, and fuel the water cycle.
Van Westen said an outage of the AMOC would significantly reduce heat exchange around the world, with serious implications for Europe.
For thousands of years, Earth’s oceans have relied on this conveyor belt-like circulation system. It’s still working, but at a slower pace than it has been lately.
The conveyor belt’s engines are located off the coast of Greenland, where as climate change melts more ice, more fresh water flows into the North Atlantic Ocean, slowing everything down, Van Westen said. In the current system, cooler, deeper fresh water moves south through the Americas, then east through Africa.
Meanwhile, warm, saline water coming from the Pacific and Indian Oceans passes through the southern tip of Africa, turns around Florida and continues north up the U.S. East Coast to Greenland.
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