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With the Senior Bowl and East-West Shrine Bowl behind us, expectations continue to rise for the 2024 NFL Draft. This year’s list of future NFL stars features outstanding prospects at key positions on offense, including tackle, wide receiver, and most importantly, quarterback.
It shouldn’t be too surprising that USA TODAY’s Nate Davis’ latest first-round mock draft includes five quarterbacks. Over the past decade, five quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round twice, in 2018 and 2021. However, as Davis expected, neither draft resulted in five quarterbacks being selected in the first 12 picks. If he’s right, the 2024 NFL Draft will be the first since 1999.
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Why there will be more quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL mock draft
Last year, two quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the NFL Draft: USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye. Williams won the Heisman Trophy in 2022, and while Maye didn’t match his production, his flashes of talent and athleticism made him a top prospect. He is taller, bigger and more mobile than Williams.
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LSU’s Jaden Daniels has also moved up the draft board and is expected to be a top pick. The 2023 Heisman Trophy winner put up gaudy passing and rushing numbers in his final season with the Tigers. At 23, he is older than Maye (21) and Williams (22), but he steadily improved each season in college, especially after transferring to LSU and playing with great talent.
Michigan’s JJ McCarthy has seen a similar, albeit less significant, rise recently. He hasn’t thrown as much as Daniels, Maye or Williams, so he’s more obscure than them. The following is a comparison of the career path totals of the four quarterback candidates.
| quarterback | completion | attempt | yard | T.D. | INT | evaluation |
| caleb williams | 735 | 1,099 | 10,082 | 93 | 14 | 169.3 |
| drake may | 618 | 952 | 8,018 | 63 | 16 | 154.1 |
| jayden daniels | 953 | 1,438 | 12,750 | 89 | 20 | 158.4 |
| JJ McCarthy | 482 | 713 | 6,226 | 49 | 11 | 160.5 |
McCarthy played at a high level, including at the U.S. Championships.
Michigan’s offense didn’t need him to throw the ball as much as the other three players. He’s younger than all of them, giving him plenty of reason to believe he can develop into a better passer over time behind an established starter. A mock draft of Davis has the Minnesota Vikings selecting him 11th overall, sitting behind Kirk Cousins.
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Why is Bo Nix ranked higher than Michael Penix Jr. in an NFL mock draft?
The Pac-12’s quarterbacks (Oregon’s Nix, Washington’s Penix Jr.) led two of the best offenses in college football this fall. They followed a similar path of transferring to reunite with their former coach in a new location. In 2023, it led the country in multiple statistics. Penix Jr. finished the season with the most passing yards (4,903) and attempts (555). Knicks led the nation in passing touchdowns (45), completions (364) and completion percentage (77.4, also tied for an NCAA record).
Both were prolific, but Davis’ mock draft had the Knicks go No. 12 to the Denver Broncos, completing a quintet of first-round quarterbacks, but Penix Jr. did not go in the first round.
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One of the biggest question marks is his injury history. Penix Jr. tore his ACL in 2018, suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in 2019, re-torn his ACL in 2020 and dislocated his throwing shoulder in 2021. The Knicks’ only major injury was breaking his ankle late in 2021. Auburn season.
Nix was also a more productive runner in college. He probably won’t be as productive in the NFL due to the speed of the defense at this level, but his 1,613 yards and 38 rushing touchdowns in college far exceeded Penix Jr.’s 265 yards and 13 touchdowns, respectively. ing. A two-way quarterback, or at least a running threat, is a big plus for a prospect.
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Another factor may be the people around you. Penix Jr.’s best season came when he threw to wide receivers Roman Odunze, Jaylin Polk and Jalen McMillan. All three are projected to be selected in the first half of the 2024 NFL Draft, with Odunze ranked No. 5 overall in Davis’ latest mock draft. Washington also won the Joe Moore Award, given to college football’s top offensive line unit. Tackle Troy Fautanu is projected to be a first-round pick at No. 25 in this mock draft.
In contrast, the Knicks’ top target, Troy Franklin, ranks higher in mock drafts but isn’t as highly rated as Odunze. Center Jackson Powers-Johnson is probably the best center in this draft class, but the first-round pick is fringe. The talent around Penix Jr. was better than anything the Knicks had worked with.
Davis choosing to be the fifth team to draft a quarterback also makes sense for the Knicks. Broncos coach Sean Payton’s best years were with quarterback Drew Brees, known for his accuracy and timing. The Knicks just came off the most accurate passing season in college football history.
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Which team could take a quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft?
Perhaps the biggest wild card when considering a first-round quarterback is how many teams will try to draft a quarterback in the first round. A third of leagues have quarterback uncertainty and could potentially select a quarterback in the first round.
Nine teams own the top 10 picks, with the Arizona Cardinals and Los Angeles Chargers likely the only teams not drafting a quarterback. The 10th-ranked New York Jets will have 40-year-old starter Aaron Rodgers back next season, but could consider drafting a quarterback of the future.
This leaves the Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders, New England Patriots, New York Giants, Tennessee Titans, and Atlanta Falcons in the top 10. Additionally, the Vikings (11th overall), Broncos (12th), Las Vegas Raiders (13th) and Pittsburgh Steelers (20th) could be looking for a new starting quarterback. The New Orleans Saints (No. 14), Los Angeles Rams (No. 19) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No. 26) are developing quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft and looking to replace their starters in the next few seasons. there is a possibility. What the Green Bay Packers did with Jordan Love.
When is the 2024 NFL Draft?
The first round of the 2024 NFL Draft begins on Thursday, April 25th at 8pm ET on ABC, ESPN and NFL Network. Rounds 2-3 will begin on April 26th at 7:00 PM ET, and Rounds 4-7 will begin on the weekend, April 27th at noon ET.
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